The Coattail Effect: A Fresh Perspective For 2024 And Beyond — Key Highlights
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The coattail effect, a phenomenon where an incumbent president's performance influences the electoral success of their vice president, is a critical yet underexplored dynamic in political science.
A potentially disastrous negative coattail effect was looming for both democratic house and senate races in 2024 as president bidens support dwindled following an abysmal debate performance.
The results show that a 1 pp decline in electoral support for a party in a given election reduces its support in the concurrent election by 0. 25 pp.
Causal identification of coattail effects is challenging because popularity shocks typically affect parties in both concurrent elections.
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